Welcome to Fat Chris’ Phat Picks! Glad you’re here to hear my takes on gambling advice in the NFL. Starting this week, I’ll be providing 5 of my favorite picks against the spread, each week until the end of the season. Follow with caution, but they don’t call me Fat Chris cause I’m obese (I’m actually a pretty small dude). They call me that because of the FAT sacks I win, it’s like robbing a bank. My picks will go from least to most confident, and finally my lock of the week pick. Enjoy!
Ravens @ Raiders
Ravens are one of the most confusing teams this year. Giving up only a combined 10 points in their first 2 games, then giving up a combined 70 in their next 2. Raiders are another confusing team, after starting off 2-0, their offense has failed to show up in their next 2 games where they failed to score more than 10 points in each. Now with Derek Carr, most likely out this week, I do not see their offense improving in this game even though Baltimore’s defense has been struggling. I think the Ravens get their act together on defense and squeak out a close victory (or at least cover the spread) against backup EJ Manuel and the Raiders in the black hole.
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Jets @ Browns
The Jets and their fans are on their high horse after two straight wins, that nobody expected. And the browns are, well, the Browns. They have just one win since the beginning of last season, but don’t count them out in this one. Jets beat two suspect victims (Phins and Jags), and obviously are far from being a team that’s considered “good” in the slightest. This was also only the second time in McCown’s career he’s won two straight starts, and I don’t see him making it a third against his former team, in their house, they have his number. The Jets should want the earliest pick possible in the draft, but they continue to win when everyone wants losses, and vice versa when they want wins. Browns knock the sense back into the Jets in this one.
Pick: Browns PK
Jaguars @ Steelers
Lets face it, the Jaguars are terrible. Yes, they blew out the Ravens, but that was in London, basically home field advantage for the Jags every time they play there. The Steelers have arguably the best offense in the league, right there next to the Pats. Any offense that features Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Ben Roethlisberger has the possibility of lighting up any defense, but there’s no doubt in my mind that the Steelers crush the Jaguars. Don’t get me wrong, I love Blake Bortles, that’s my guy, but he’s dead in the water in this game. Especially after coming off a loss to the Jets, the Jags aren’t to happy with themselves, and Pittsburgh is going to kick them while their down in their backyard.
Pick: Steelers -8
Packers @ Dallas
Coming off a tough loss at home, the Cowboys host the Packers looking to avoid losing two straight in the house that Jerry built. The Cowboys are 2-2 and their two losses are from their two toughest opponents of the season, the Broncos and the Rams. Those teams aren’t amazing, but aren’t terrible either, though if this was Dallas from last year I’d expect them to win those games. The fact of the matter is, this isn’t the Dallas team from last year, and the only thing that remains consistent is their god awful defense. I expect Aaron Rodgers to come into Dallas and tear up against this subpar defense like a what paper bag. And Green Bay’s defense is nothing to bat an eye to, averaging 300 yards against a game, 299.5 to be exact. I like the Packers to win, but why not stay safe and take the points when they’re offered?
Pick: Packers +2.5
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Patriots @ Buccaneers
Who doesn’t love watching the Patriots on Thurday night primetime television. Everyone’s scared to take the Patriots and I can understand why, they don’t look as dominant as they were expected to be, but honestly, don’t sweat it. I can’t even remember the last time the Pats lost back to back. After their first loss this season they won their next game with flying colors, and this game was only the only game the Pats have covered so far this season. The Bucs defense is averaging just shy of 400 yards against a game, and 300+ of those yards are coming through the air. Expect Tom Brady to eat up tonight, so bust out the fine china. Not to say that the Bucs won’t play well. They really do have a solid offense, and they’re going up against arguably the worst defense in the league up to this point in the season. I expect Famous Jameis to have a good day here too, but if it’s going to be a shootout, I’ll take Tom Brady over anyone in the history of the sport. Pack your bags and book your flight to lock city.
LOCK: Patriots -4.5